The population growth of the late 15th century and later owed as much to the change of military technology and reduction in mediaeval local wars as anything else. Wars started to use less manpower (but more skilled), and there were fewer of them.

It's risible to assert that there was a failure to allow for the presence of the potential of the USA in 1914. The USA was on a par with the UK or Germany then, strategically and industrially. The grave fear was that Germany's moment would pass if Russia came up to speed, that there was a narrow window of opportunity.

So, leaving aside the fact that Russia not the USA was what counted then, the potential made a driver to seize the passing moment before it became actual. But Germany had actually forgotten that France and Britain's slow decline had not yet got fully underway and there was a lot of strenght left - so, no window.

For what it's worth, massive immigration would not now offset Germany's problems. There is a fair bit of evidence that the trend to smaller family sizes is in part due to feedback through tax and social security systems; so, bringing in immigrants has the unintended effect of throttling back natural growth to the extent that the immigrants reproduce in their turn.
P.M.Lawrence | Homepage | 03.12.06 - 1:50 am | #