http://www.haloscan.com/ Latest comments for alterdestiny. Syndicated by HaloScan http://www.haloscan.com/ http://www.haloscan.com/halolink.gif http://www.haloscan.com/ 88 31 Commenting Powered by HaloScan.com http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61845 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:42:10 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61845 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61845 I understand the nature of the probabilities. My point was mostly that much of the discussion I read the day after the game posited a certain Colts TD even with the longer field, as if there existed no difference in probabilities with the additional 40 or so yards field position. This sentiment wasn't being expressed through numbers, but was taken as a given. A Pats punt = Colts TD. I actua... http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61844 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:55:35 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61844 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61844 Fallsroad, no one is arguing that the Colts would inevitably have scored a TD from wherever they took possession following a punt. The more rigorous side is merely arguing that the long-term relative frequency of the Patriots converting the 4th down in that situation is higher than the probability that the Colts wouldn't have driven the length of the field and scored the touchdown. (see http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61843 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:15:40 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61843 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61843 One thing that seems to get lost in the statistical struggle to determine which is the right call is this: The Pats punt, and Manning, as awesome as I believe him to be, still has to actually execute a 70 yard drive in just about two minutes and score another touchdown. This is certainly not out of his reach (obviously, given events in that very game), but it has been talked about as if that po... http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61841 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:34:48 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61841 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61841 The issue of respect is interesting--in baseball I'd totally discount this sort of thing. In football, not entirely sure. The game is played on such a high emotional level. Of course, if it was the Raiders defense getting disrespected no one would take that seriously. So it obviously has real limitations. But given the emotions of football, could there be something to it? http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61835 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:55:51 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61835 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61835 richie, your model is exactly the right one; interestingly, even if you assume that the Colts are certain to score the TD, if they take over at the 30, but that the Pats are more likely to convert a 4th-and-2 than to stop the Colts from scoring a TD from their own 30, Belichick's bet is still correct. Finally, Simmons really embarrasses himself with the part about the Colts defense feeling disr... http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61832 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:26:08 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61832 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61832 Even if the Pats make it, it's the wrong call. Though obviously the post-game analysis would be far different. The catastrophic end of that game shows why the decision was unsound--in that situation. On the 50, less so. On the Indy 40, even less. It also shows the limitations of relying on statistical analysis in football. And while I value statistical analysis, there's a lot more to football http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61831 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:24:36 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61831 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61831 Should read "If ((A * 1) + ((1-A) * (1-C))) > (1-B)" http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61830 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:22:43 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61830 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61830 The "statheads" are saying it's the correct call. Obviously, it depends on their estimates for the significant variables, but there's enough margin for error that the degree of certainty is quite high. Your second point is obvious, results-oriented thinking is archaic at best. I really doubt anyone actually believes it was the wrong call because it failed. If they do, they're beyond hope. http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61829 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:17:45 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61829 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61829 Ok, give me your inputs. A) How often does the Patriot's offense (#2 in the league) make that 4th down? B) How often do the Colts score a touchdown if punted? C) How often do the Colts score a touchdown if not punted? Average teams score the following: A) 60% * B) 30% C) 53% My assumption is all of these numbers are higher, given we're talking about the #1 and #2 offenses http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsr#61828 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:12:27 +0000 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61828 http://www.haloscan.com/comments/alterdestiny/7969384299076518385/?src=hsrs#61828 The statheads aren't saying it was the right call--if they are, their basis is as shaky as the traditionalists--only that it wasn't crazy. Given the probabilities and the uncertainties, that's hard to refute. Moreover, a valid refutation would itself be probabilistic in nature. More importantly, the statheads are saying that the failure of the play call is no proof that the decision was unsound...